So, the Oscar nominations are being announced 5.38 am PST time. I have no idea what that equates to in Brisbane time, and I certainly can't be bothered figuring it out. Needless to say it will be sometime in the next 24 hours, and I thought I'd try my hand at predicting the best picture nominations. One of the reasons I'm doing this is that last year I correctly predicted all ten nominations, yet didn't record my predictions anywhere, and subsequently have no record or proof of said excellent prediction skills. This year will be even more difficult to pick, however, given that the Academy has changed the nomination format again after only two years. This year instead of ten films definitely being nominated, at least five films HAVE to be nominated but it COULD be as many as ten. In other words it will be somewhere between five and ten films. So I'll do this prediction a little differently.
If only five films are nominated they will be.....
The Artist
If someone had told me last year that the favourite to win best picture the following year would be a silent black and white French film I would have either assumed they were joking or crazy. But here we are. It appears that just about everyone thinks The Artist will take the main prize home, possibly because it's something different yet accessible, possibly because people appreciate the classical film making approach, or possibly because it's a great movie. I haven't seen it as it's not even out here yet, and while I don't usually fully embrace films that are overly gimmicky I'm pretty excited to see it when it comes out in February.
The Descendants
It won the award for best drama at the Golden Globes, which if recent history is anything to go by means it will be nominated for best picture at the Oscars but wont win. On top of that it's received loads of critical acclaim and IS one of the best movies of the year (I'll review it in my next entry), so it's a shoe in.
Hugo
As with The Descendants, it is one of the best reviewed films of the years and has loads of Oscar buzz, so it's lock in for a nomination. I've been slack and haven't gotten around to seeing it yet, but am muchly looking forward to doing so. You can bet your bottom dollar on this, The Descendants, and The Artist all being nominated.
Midnight in Paris
I'm slightly less confident about this one than the previous three, however the Oscars always needs the obligatory slightly off beat comedy in their best picture recognitions to show they're not a bunch of old stiffs who are all about the drama movies, and Woody Allen's new treasure will do nicely.
Moneyball
Probably the movie I feel least confident about putting in the top five, however the Academy loves rewarding intelligently written films that are based on true stories like this one, so I think it will be in there. Plus it has Brad Pitt in it.
.... but I think eight films will be nominated in total, with the next three being....
The Help
The Academy also loves recognising movies about people standing up against racism and injustice. It makes them feel like they're progressive, tolerant people and gives them a nice warm fuzzy feeling inside ( I assume.) Plus it's gotten pretty good reviews. I missed it at the cinema but will check it out when it comes to DVD in February.
Drive
Not alot of Oscar buzz for Drive however it has received overwhelmingly positive reviews from critics. This would be a different sort to be nominated, however I've noticed a slight trend in recent years for more trendy or "cult" movies to be recognised. I personally thought it was a tad overrated, but the majority disagree.
War Horse
My award for most obvious Oscar bait of the year, War Horse wasn't exactly a critical darling, however it IS exactly the kind of classical film making the Academy loves to award, and with the Spielberg director's credit attached I think the Academy will find it too hard to resist taking the bait.
...however if ten films happen to be nominated the next two will be...
Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Another one I've yet to see, David Fincher's adaptation of the beloved novel has been gaining a tremendous amount of critical acclaim. The reason I think it will miss out is I'm sure there will be a contingent amongst Academy voters who loathe the whole Americans remaking foreign films thing, especially so soon after the original film came out, and will refuse to vote for it.
The Tree of Life
I hope with all of my being that the best film of the year (entirely objective statement of course) scrapes in for a nomination, but I can't see it happening. While I'm sure there will be a number of Academy voters that will vote the film quite highly, the new system means you have to get a certain number of votes to qualify for a nomination, and I think the love it or hate it nature of The Tree of Life will mean it wont quite get enough.
So there we go, and I'll be very curious to see how my predictions play out. I've got about 8 or 9 films to write ups for at the moment, so hopefully I'll get some spare time and do that soon.
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