So I've still got a second catch up session to do, but with the Oscar nominations being just around the corner I thought I'd through my had in the ring in guessing what will be nominated for best movie. As with last year, the minimum number of movies that can be nominated is five and the maximum is ten. Some of these movies haven't even been released in Australia yet, but I'm basing my predictions on the movies I have seen, the kinds of movies that normally get nominated, movies that have been nominated for other awards and general Oscars buzz. Predictions have been split into three, guaranteed, likely and possible.
Guaranteed Nominations
You can bet your bottom dollar the following four movies will be nominated. I really should have five guaranteed nominees seeing as there has to be five movies nominated, but there are only four I'm 100% sure of.
Lincoln (Not out in Australia yet)
Steven Spielberg + Historical Drama + Daniel Day-Lewis. This would be nominated even if it was the worst movie ever made just based on the above formula. To be honest, unless it's especially good I really hope it doesn't win as it's such an predictable and boring choice for best picture. But I am looking forward to seeing it.
Zero Dark Thirty (Not out in Australia yet)
Pretty much all the critics are raving about it, it's a political drama about recent history and it's been nominated for heaps of other awards. Yeah, it's a lock for a nomination. Also, it's directed by Kathryn Bigelow who directed The Hurt Locker, winner of the best picture from a few years back.
Argo
Ditto Zero Dark Thirty. Except this is directed by Ben Affleck, who's profile as a director is slowly rising.
Les Miserables
It's been a while since a musical has received a best picture nomination, however this a big budget, lavish production of one of the most popular musicals in recent history featuring a big name cast with the director of The Kings Speech at the helm. Of course it will be nominated.
Likely Nominations
These ones will most likely get a nomination, I'm just not bold enough to say it with any certainty.
Silver Linings Playbook (Not out in Australia yet)
This one almost HAS to be nominated as the Oscars always have a token comedy film in the list and this is the only comedy that is getting any significant Oscar buzz.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
A critical darling and with good reason (it's one of the best movies of 2012 by a mile) this is another movie that almost HAS to be nominated to demonstrate that the Oscars still appreciate smaller, independent movies and also movies that are, you know, good.
The Master
Similar in tone and theme to Paul Thomas Anderson's last effort, There Will be Blood, which did earn a best picture nomination. This one is almost as good, but it's a little more avant-garde and bizarre which may put Oscar voters off, but all the critical applause it's received should push it over the line.
Possible Nominations
So that's seven movies that will almost certainly be nominated, however there are a possible ten nomination spots up for grabs, so I'll name another three for good measure.
Django Unchained (Not out in Australia yet)
The reviews for this one see to suggest that it's very good, if not Taratino's best. But it's still Taratino and boasts and impressive cast, so I think it could be looked on favourably by Oscar voters.
Life of Pi
Getting a fare bit of buzz, Oscar voters usually like Ang Lee, plus it's a good movie, which helps. So I think it's in with a good chance.
Amour
There's been at least one instance where a movie has been nominated for best foreign language film and best picture (Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon) and I'm hoping beyond hope that it happens again with Amour. Getting a surprising amount of buzz, I was happy last year when my favourite film of 2011, Tree of Life, was simply nominated in the best picture category. I'd be equally as happy here.
So that's that. The last couple of years have seen a number of great movies nominated for best picture, but the main prize always goes to the wrong movie. I predict the same will happen again this year.
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